CAMPO 2035 Plan = Even Worse Congestion on MOPAC

If  you regularly travel MOPAC South of Lady Bird Lake – you should brace for the worst – that is if you plan to still be commuting via MOPAC in the next 5 to 10 years.  Why?  Because changes currently taking place at CAMPO will significantly impact your commute times.  I’ve already written about the serious concerns I have with the CAMPO 2035 Plan, but the impacts of the changes to the composition of the CAMPO Transportation Policy Board may well play out sooner rather than later when it comes to your commute on South MOPAC. 

Here’s the drill:  (1) There is no real prioritizing of projects in the CAMPO 2035 Plan.  They may be assigned long-term projected timeframes, and the Policy Board (which includes other “electeds” and myself) may get to vote on the projects that go on the short-term 3-year list of projects (the TIP), but there’s more to it than that.  (2) The Policy Board changes proposed for the 2035 Plan are likely to reduce from a supermajority to a simple-majority the vote needed to include projects in system financing.  System financing means the toll road funding agency (CTRMA) can use excess revenues after debt service from SH 183A to help finance other tolled projects. 

By now, you are probably bored and thinking, “How in the world could this possibly affect me?”  After all, MOPAC is not tolled – yet.  Well, it will affect you and here is how.  Continuing the drill:  (3) SH 45 SW has been a 25-year dream of TXDOT and those who would like to expand residential and commercial development in Hays County.  They want that road!  (Never mind that the drought of last year reminded everyone that there is no water down there to support that growth. “Minor detail,” they say. “…we’ll just bring it over from Bastrop County.”  Guess what?  Many in Bastrop County are not too happy about that, either!)  (4) Brodie folks are screaming “Build It Now” because their traffic is unbearable (that’s true!) and say that SH 45 SW will solve the problem (that’s false!) – The majority of Brodie traffic is generated internally and there is no study to show that the Hays folks will pay a toll rather than use Brodie Lane.

 “So, yaaawn – how is this going to affect my MOPAC commute?”  Because (5) the new composition of the CAMPO Policy Board is shifting the majority votes to the peripheral counties which means that the City of Austin and Travis County will have a tough time controlling priorities on the TIP – like SH 45 SW which will increase sprawl and dump more traffic onto South MOPAC.  This particular project will have huge impacts on the budgets of both Austin and Travis County due to domino effects on other mobility needs.  Now, we are talking MOPAC, folks.  A well kept secret – so secret that it isn’t even taken into account by the CAMPO 2035 Plan – is the huge increase in traffic resulting from the already platted and ready-to-build subdivisions in Southwestern Travis County.  Real estate professionals tell me that the SH 71 W corridor will be the first to explode when the economy turns around.  Guess where many of those upwards of 80,000 vehicle trips/day are headed?  You got it.  Watch out Bee Caves Road, Southwest Parkway, the Y at Oak Hill and MOPAC!

. . . And the clincher is:  SH 45 SW “only” costs $80-100 million and the right-of-way is already purchased.  The Y at Oak Hill is projected at $600 million, AND, there are NO plans in the next 25 years for substantial capacity improvements on MOPAC South of Lady Bird Lake that will be able to accommodate all this expected traffic.  TXDOT really wants that SH 45 loop and TXDOT is in a well-leveraged position with Williamson County for votes on the Policy Board.  Want to take bets on which gets built first?  Mine is on SH 45 SW unless we can get if off of the CAMPO 2035 Plan, now.